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James X. Zhan   UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT   Director of Investment and Enterprise Division

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全球性投资前景:展望跨国公司  

2009-07-24 09:02:46|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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2009-2011 世界投前景调查

全球性投景:展望跨国公司

女士们,先生们

参加2009年世界投调查贸发会议 年一度的世界投资前景调查主要根据一些大型世界跨国公司的回馈来预测今后三年的外商投资模式。

正因经济和金融危机主要影响了跨国公司的未来外商投资和经营,因此今年调查的带有一些特殊的意义和目的

       首先我要突出强调调查研究的重要果,然后提出到的现象

  1. 全球性外商直接投资的整体前景: 跨国公司期待对外贸投资进行一次积极的补救,此次补救在2010年开始,在2011年发展壮大。
  2. 行业外商直接投资前景: 外商直接投资的前景主要在(采矿和农业)而服务行业将依然明亮,而外商直接投资在制造业的前景较不乐观
  3.  地域的外商直接投资前景: 发展中国家,特别是东部和东南亚地区作为投资目的地,比发达国家更有吸引力。
  4. 未来外商直接投资的主要地方:  (中国、印度、巴西和俄国)处于外商直接投资的五个名列前茅的目的地之中。
  5. 外商直接投资的风险: 持续性的全球性财政经济危机,金融不稳定性的增加,保护主义的上升,报漏外商投资制度中出现的变化,都是世界性大公司中恢复外商直接投资最浅在的风险。

短期外商直接投资景做一些观察,即,2009外商直接投资

现在允许我对短期外商直接投资前景做一些观察,即,2009年外商直接投资趋向:

2009年全球性的外商直接投资趋向。贸发会议数据显示全球外商直接投资流入和跨国合并和收购-外商直接投资的主要方式,在2008年最后一个季度大幅度下降,并且延续到2009年。在2009年第一季度,外商直接投资与去年同一个期间相比,下降了54%,合并和收购减少了77%。

如果第一季度的趋势继续延续,预计整个2009年的全球外商直接投资会减少将近一半。其中发达国家的外商直接投资将会下降60%,发展中国家外商直接投资预计减少25%,转型经济体会减少40%。

数据显示了跨国合并和收购的相似模式前景:全球可能下降三分之二,其中发达国家占大约70%,发展中国家占大约50%,转型经济体占大约85%。

为了客服经济危机的后果,跨国公司要在短期内更多的依赖非股权扩张模式,例如合作伙伴或者特许方式来发展他们的国际商务,同时也要对股权的投资更加谨慎,例如跨国合并和收购和格林菲尔德项目。

对于外商直接投资政策的趋势,最近的政策发展(出现在全球经济危机中)描绘了一幅美好的画卷。根据联合国贸易与发展会议对于G20峰会成员的回顾(涉及到40个主要世界经济体),很少政策和法规是用来限制外商直接投资的。相反,世界经济危机促使各国努力提高和促进外商直接投资,并且提高投资环境的透明度和稳定性。

然而,贸发会议对于投资保护主义的担忧并不是毫无理由的。经济促进计划能够产生被认为是“明智的”保护主义。此外,新一轮的经济国家保护主义也许会成为危机的后果:当国有资本从受国家资金保护的旗舰产业中离开之后,就会出现保护民族冠军免收外国企业接管的现象。

 

谢谢

英文原文:

 

UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT

 

Global Investment Prospects: TNCs’ perspective 

James Zhan

Director

Investment and Enterprise Division, UNCTAD 

 

Ladies and Gentlemen:

 

 Welcome to the launch of UNCTAD's 2009 World Investment Prospects Survey. This annual survey aims at providing insights into FDI patterns over the next three years, based on responses by largest TNCs worldwide.

 

The results of the Survey are of special interest this year, as the ongoing economic and financial crisis raises major concerns about the propensity and capability of TNCs’ future foreign investment and operation.

 

       Let me first highlight the key findings of the prospects survey, and then offer our  own observations.

 

 

1.      Overall prospects for global FDI: TNCs expect a progressive recovery of FDI, starting in 2010 and gaining momentum in 2011.

  

2.      FDI prospect by industry: Prospects for FDI in primary (mining and agriculture) and services industry would remain bright, while prospects for FDI in the manufacturing would be less optimistic.

 

3.      FDI prospects by region: Developing countries, particularly East and South-East Asia, would be more attractive than developed countries as an investment destination.

 

4.      Future bright spots for FDI: the BRIC (China, India, Brazil and Russia) would be among the top five favourable destinations for FDI.

 

5.      Risks for FDI: further global economic downturn, increase in financial instability and rise in protectionism involving a change in foreign investment regimes are listed by the TNCs as the greatest potential risks to the recovery of the global FDI.

 

Now allow me to make some observations on the short-term FDI prospects, i.e. FDI trends in 2009:

 

The global FDI trends in 2009. Global FDI inflows and cross-border mergers and acquisitions  - the main mode of FDI - drastically declined in the last quarter of 2008, and the fall has continued into 2009, UNCTAD data reveal. FDI inflows dropped by 54% and M&As by 77% during the first quarter of 2009 as compared to the same period last year.

 

If the first quarter trend continues, projections for the whole of 2009 are for global FDI inflows to drop by close to half. While developed countries would experience a nearly 60% decline, the reduction for developing nations is expected to be as much as 25%, and for transition economies as much as 40%.

Data show a similar pattern in the 2009 prospects for cross-border M&A sales: it appears likely these will fall by two-thirds globally -- by about 70% in developed countries, by almost 50% in developing countries, and by about 85% in transition economies.

 

To overcome the consequences of the crisis, TNCs may rely more heavily in the short-term on non-equity entry modes, such as partnerships or licensing, to develop their international business, while being more cautious about equity investments, such as cross-border M&As and greenfield projects.

 

Regarding the trends in FDI policies, the recent policy developments (occurring during the global crisis) paint an overall comforting picture. According to UNCTAD’s recent review of G20 members (over 40 major world economies), few new laws and regulations could be characterized as being "restrictive" towards FDI. Instead, the crisis has triggered new efforts to promote and facilitate FDI and to enhance the clarity and stability of their investment frameworks.

 

However, TNCs’ concern about the risk of investment protectionism is not ungrounded. Economic stimulus packages could give rise to what can be labeled as "smart" protectionism. Furthermore, a new wave of economic nationalism could occur in the aftermath of the crisis, when the exit of the State capital from bailed-out flagship industries might lead to the protection of "national champions" from foreign takeovers.

 

      I now give the floor to my colleagues Masataka Fujita and Fabrice Hatem who will provide you more in-depth insights about the results of this year's WIPS.

 

Thank you.

 

 

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